NEWS
Global warming poses security challenges
05/23/2007
Editorial
The Roanoke Times
Pretend for a moment that the overwhelming scientific consensus does not say global warming is a very real threat. Pretend there are serious challenges, and climate change is an open question. Even in such a state of doubt, prudence still would dictate the United States at least plan for the worst.
That is precisely what a bipartisan movement in Congress hopes to do, and with Republican Sen. John Warner on board, Americans can be sure security implications will receive due attention.
Virginia's senior senator is working with a number of his colleagues to include in the 2008 intelligence authorization bill a requirement that agencies prepare a National Intelligence Estimate on how a warming world could alter or even undermine national security strategy in coming decades.
Warner, one of the Senate's leaders on all things security-related, knows that planning for contingencies is essential to success.
If climate change forecasts pan out as the best scientific evidence and models show, America would face a dramatically different security environment.
Rising sea levels could force mass migrations of people away from populous coastal communities around the world. Shifting weather patterns that cause droughts or increased rainfall in different areas could create food shortages. All of which could destabilize entire regions and heighten global tensions.
America needs to prepare for those scenarios, especially given the lack of action on actually doing something about climate change itself. The first step is analyzing the threat and its potential outcomes.
Hence, Warner seeks a National Intelligence Estimate that would provide a framework for planning.
Unfortunately, die-hard climate change deniers are not even interested in caution. Republicans in the House attempted to block a similar provision in that chamber's intelligence bill. They failed, but a similar move might erupt in the Senate. Warner could face harsh criticism from his own party.
He must remain strong. It would be better to have the plans in place and not need them than to face catastrophe unprepared.